[Short-term predictability of influenza AH1N1 cases based on deterministic models].
Identifieur interne : 001742 ( Main/Exploration ); précédent : 001741; suivant : 001743[Short-term predictability of influenza AH1N1 cases based on deterministic models].
Auteurs : Mauricio Canals L [Chili]Source :
- Revista chilena de infectologia : organo oficial de la Sociedad Chilena de Infectologia [ 0716-1018 ] ; 2010.
Descripteurs français
- KwdFr :
- MESH :
- virologie : Grippe humaine.
- épidémiologie : Chili, Grippe humaine.
- Flambées de maladies, Humains, Modèles théoriques, Prévision, Santé mondiale, Sous-type H1N1 du virus de la grippe A.
- Wicri :
- geographic : Chili.
English descriptors
- KwdEn :
- MESH :
- geographic , epidemiology : Chile.
- epidemiology : Influenza, Human.
- virology : Influenza, Human.
- Disease Outbreaks, Forecasting, Global Health, Humans, Influenza A Virus, H1N1 Subtype, Models, Theoretical.
Abstract
Influenza AH1N1 severely affected the population of Chile. It has high transmissibility, which may stress the health system capacity. An adequate prediction of number of cases and frequency of complications is needed. Chilean and OMS dialy reports of cases from April to Jun 2009 were analyzed in this study. We developed a simple methodology for short-term forecast of case number, based on deterministic models. Predicted and observed values were compared with regression analyses and Bland-Altman diagrams. We found that the intrinsic rate of increase of the number of cases in the world and in Chile, after an initial high instability, decreases to stable valúes, allowing a relatively accurate forecasting the next day and for a serial period. The estimators obtained are over-estimators, which allow an adequate safety factor for the estimations. The method is easy to implement in software for routine use and can be useful in monitoring this epidemic and others in the future.
DOI: /S0716-10182010000200003
PubMed: 20556312
Affiliations:
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Le document en format XML
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It has high transmissibility, which may stress the health system capacity. An adequate prediction of number of cases and frequency of complications is needed. Chilean and OMS dialy reports of cases from April to Jun 2009 were analyzed in this study. We developed a simple methodology for short-term forecast of case number, based on deterministic models. Predicted and observed values were compared with regression analyses and Bland-Altman diagrams. We found that the intrinsic rate of increase of the number of cases in the world and in Chile, after an initial high instability, decreases to stable valúes, allowing a relatively accurate forecasting the next day and for a serial period. The estimators obtained are over-estimators, which allow an adequate safety factor for the estimations. The method is easy to implement in software for routine use and can be useful in monitoring this epidemic and others in the future.</div></front></TEI><affiliations><list><country><li>Chili</li></country></list><tree><country name="Chili"><noRegion><name sortKey="Canals L, Mauricio" sort="Canals L, Mauricio" uniqKey="Canals L M" first="Mauricio" last="Canals L">Mauricio Canals L</name></noRegion></country></tree></affiliations></record>Pour manipuler ce document sous Unix (Dilib)
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